RAINFALL PREDICTION FOR QINGMING FESTIVAL BASED ON ARIMA-LSTM MODEL

Authors

  • XinYing Song (Corresponding Author) School of Computer Science, Xi'an Shiyou University, Xi'an 710000, Shaanxi, China
  • YuXuan Zhao School of Earth Science and Engineering, Xi'an Shiyou University, Xi'an 710000, Shaanxi, China
  • SiYu Yang School of Electronic Engineering, Xi'an Shiyou University, Xi'an 710000, Shaanxi, China
  • Chao Luo School of Electronic Engineering, Xi'an Shiyou University, Xi'an 710000, Shaanxi, China
  • ZhenCheng Fu School of Petroleum Engineering, Xi'an Shiyou University, Xi'an 710000, Shaanxi, China

Keywords:

Qingming Festival period, Rainfall prediction, Time series analysis, ARIMA-LSTM, Meteorological modeling

Abstract

Requent rainfall during the Qingming Festival period has impacted public travel, cultural and tourism activities, as well as urban management. Based on nearly 20 years of meteorological data, this study develops an ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model to model and predict rainfall patterns in five representative cities: Xi’an, Turpan, Wuyuan, Hangzhou, and Wuhan. The results indicate that the model demonstrates strong fitting accuracy and stability, with an average R2 of 0.84196 and a prediction accuracy of 89.9%. After incorporating a real-time correction mechanism, the model’s responsiveness to abrupt weather changes improved, with error control enhanced by over 15%. This study provides data support and methodological reference for short-term meteorological services and public travel during the Qingming Festival.

References

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Published

2025-08-28

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025)

Section

Research Article

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61784/fer3034

How to Cite

Song, X., Zhao, Y., Yang, S., Luo, C., Fu, Z. (2025). Rainfall Prediction For Qingming Festival Based On Arima-Lstm Model. Eurasia Journal of Science and Technology, 3(3), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.61784/fer3034