POPULATION AGEING, INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING, AND THE SILVER ECONOMY: A THEORETICAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF SHAOXING, CHINA
Keywords:
Population ageing, Low fertility, Regional development, Industrial restructuring, Silver economyAbstract
Population ageing and persistent low fertility are reshaping the development logic of Chinese city-regions, yet their regional implications remain insufficiently explored. This paper examines Shaoxing, a manufacturing-oriented city in Zhejiang Province, to analyze how demographic transition affects regional development through labour supply, dependency burdens, spatial differentiation, and industrial restructuring. The evidence shows that Shaoxing has entered a new stage marked by slowing population growth, negative natural increase, deep ageing, and growing internal divergence. In 2024, the share of the population aged 60 and above reached 31.6%, while population maintenance increasingly depended on migration rather than natural reproduction. To interpret these changes, the paper develops a stylized two-sector model composed of a traditional manufacturing sector and a silver-economy sector. The analysis shows that ageing has a dual effect: it weakens labour-intensive growth by reducing effective labour supply and increasing welfare burdens, while also creating new demand for healthcare, elderly care, rehabilitation, and age-friendly products. The paper argues that ageing in Shaoxing is best understood as a process of regional restructuring rather than merely demographic decline.References
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