PREDICTING ADOLESCENT SPORTS PARTICIPATION BEHAVIOR AND IDENTIFYING AT-RISK GROUPS

Abstract

Adolescence is a critical stage for the formation of sports-related behaviors and healthy lifestyles. The level of sports participation during this period is closely associated not only with physical health, but also with psychological development and social adaptation. However, insufficient sports participation remains a widespread issue among adolescents, with substantial disparities across different subgroups. Against this background, this study develops a multidimensional analytical framework for predicting adolescent sports participation behavior and identifying at-risk groups from the perspectives of individual, family, school, and social-environmental factors. The study aims to reveal the key determinants of sports participation and to identify adolescents who are at heightened risk of insufficient participation. Using questionnaire survey data collected from adolescent students, this study employs descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and risk identification methods to examine the overall characteristics, key predictors, and high-risk groups of adolescent sports participation. The findings indicate that adolescent sports participation shows clear subgroup differences, with gender, school stage, and family support being closely associated with participation outcomes. Further analysis demonstrates that exercise interest, self-efficacy, parental support, and school sports opportunities are important positive predictors of sports participation, whereas academic pressure, excessive screen time, and insufficient support conditions constrain participation to varying degrees. In addition, girls, students in higher school stages, and adolescents with relatively weak family and school support are more likely to be identified as high-risk groups for insufficient sports participation. The study argues that adolescent sports participation is not shaped by a single factor, but rather by the joint influence of multiple dimensions. Efforts to promote adolescent sports participation should therefore move beyond general advocacy and place greater emphasis on targeted intervention based on risk identification. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying adolescent sports participation and provide empirical implications for school-based sports promotion, family support strategies, and related policy development.