Author(s)

Ting Li

Affiliation(s)

Mathematics and Computer Science, Yan’an University, Yan’an 716000, Shaanxi, China.

Corresponding Author

Ting Li

ABSTRACT

This study systematically analyzed the quantitative relationship between male fetal Y chromosome concentration and maternal gestational age and body mass index, aiming to optimize the timing for non-invasive prenatal testing. To investigate these relationships, gestational age data formats were standardized, and missing BMI values were calculated and imputed. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses revealed a weak positive correlation between Weeks and, and a weak negative correlation with BMI. Further OLS regression modeling revealed that Weeks exerted a significant positive effect on Y and BMI a significant negative effect , both statistically significant. Although the linear model exhibited low explanatory power  and heteroscedasticity, incorporating LOWESS nonlinear smoothing clearly revealed a “rapid-then-slow” increase pattern of Y with Weeks. This confirmed the clinical observation that Y significantly declines when BMI exceeds 30. Subsequently, to determine the optimal testing window, pregnant women were stratified into four BMI groups. Intra-group OLS regression and LOWESS fitting were performed, supplemented by sensitivity analysis using 3.5%, 4.0%, and 4.5% thresholds. Results indicated that detection was feasible around 11–12 weeks for low-BMI women; while high-BMI pregnant women required delaying until approximately 12.5 weeks to achieve stable detection rates. This study provides quantitative evidence for optimizing NIPT testing strategies in clinical practice.

KEYWORDS

Non-invasive prenatal testing; Regression analysis; Optimal testing timing; Y Chromosome Concentration

CITE THIS PAPER

Ting Li. Regression analysis-based investigation of factors influencing male fetal Y Chromosome Concentration and stratified optimization of optimal timing for non-invasive prenatal testing. Journal of Pharmaceutical and Medical Research. 2025, 7(3): 30-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61784/jpmr3053.

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