Author(s)

YongXin Peng, SiMei Pan^*, YuJing Huang, LianHua Liu, WenChao Pan 

Affiliation(s)

School of Management, Guangzhou Huashang College, Guangzhou 511300, Guangdong, China.

Corresponding Author

SiMei Pan

ABSTRACT

This paper selects the logistics data of Guangzhou from 2015 to 2019, using grey theory model and grey Markov model to forecast the logistics development data of Guangzhou from 2015 to 2019. Based on the actual data and forecast data of Guangzhou logistics from 2015 to 2019, the grey Markov model with high forecasting accuracy is selected to calculate the logistics demand of Guangzhou from 2020 to 2024, the empirical results show that there are two characteristics of logistics demand growth in Guangzhou in the future: First, the total demand of logistics industry in Guangzhou shows a continuous growth trend; Second, the structure of logistics demand in Guangzhou has changed slightly. According to the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward two countermeasures: First of all, under the background of new infrastructure, Guangzhou needs to strengthen the construction of logistics infrastructure, focusing on the development and improvement of infrastructure construction such as Internet of Things and logistics big data. Secondly, in view of the changes in the logistics demand structure in Guangzhou, we should continue to optimize the structure of the logistics industry, drain the highway logistics with higher carbon emissions, and pay attention to the development of clean, efficient and low-energy logistics methods to help achieve the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

KEYWORDS

Grey prediction model; Grey Markov model; Guangzhou; Logistics demand forecast

CITE THIS PAPER

YongXin Peng, SiMei Pan, YuJing Huang, LianHua Liu, WenChao Pan. Prediction of logistics demand in Guangzhou based on grey Markov model. Social Science and Management. 2025, 2(4): 73-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.61784/ssm3072.

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